Author: Chris Marczak
We have closed another successful year, profitable across all our programs. It is my pleasure to report that each of our strategies delivered returns exceeding the major U.S. indices, both in absolute terms and on a risk-adjusted basis. As a result, we continue to strengthen our market position and expand our level of engagement.
Our analytical framework, first published over 20 years ago, remains reliable due to its universal nature and inherent simplicity. Over the past two decades, we have applied this methodology across a wide range of markets, producing consistently strong analytical results and identifying high-quality investment opportunities.
Throughout this process, we have always prioritized risk management over absolute performance. This disciplined approach has led us to multiple asset classes within the global capital markets ecosystem. Currently, our exposure is concentrated in U.S. equities and equity index options and futures, while we remain open to further research opportunities worldwide. Selected conclusions from our ongoing analysis are outlined below.
Market Outlook for 2026
We believe that U.S. equity markets are entering a phase of cyclical transition. While Wall Street continues to focus heavily on earnings, the leadership of major indices driven by artificial intelligence may persist, and the gap between technology and traditional sectors could widen further. However, we do not anticipate dramatic or disruptive market scenarios as a result of this divergence.
The period of an “easy” bullish advance may be coming to an end, with sideways price movements becoming more frequent—a typical pattern at later stages of the market cycle.
As our strategies are not directly correlated with major market indices, different market environments tend to generate different timing patterns. While overall performance may remain stable, the distribution of returns may change, further demonstrating the adaptability of our strategies across varying market conditions.
Our primary focus remains on major indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100; however, our investment universe is not limited to these markets. We continue to monitor a broad range of opportunities, including European equity markets and other asset classes.
Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies
To understand this sector, it is essential to begin with a clear assessment of risk. In theory, cryptocurrencies function as both currencies and assets, but this characterization offers limited practical value for risk evaluation. An unbacked currency or unbacked asset remains an unbacked instrument, regardless of price history or market capitalization. For this reason, institutional participation in cryptocurrencies has historically been limited.
While discussions surrounding the long-term value of cryptocurrencies continue, their fixed supply structure makes them particularly vulnerable to mass market psychology—more so than most traditional asset classes. Taking these factors into account, we maintain a neutral stance toward cryptocurrencies. Although price trends may still develop in the absence of intrinsic value, the extraordinary returns observed in the past may largely reflect periods of heightened speculative interest.
By contrast, U.S. equities have generated long-term growth over more than a century because they are supported by underlying businesses and economic activity. History has seen many “fashionable” investment themes, most of which did not endure. While a small allocation to cryptocurrencies within an individual portfolio may produce favorable results, a larger strategic exposure cannot currently be justified. Cryptocurrency performance remains heavily driven by retail participation, an environment that is inherently volatile and capable of losing interest as rapidly as it gains it.
European Markets
Because our strategies rely extensively on options, our exposure to European markets—including Poland— remains limited. Options markets in Europe generally lack the liquidity available in the United States. Nevertheless, periods of negative correlation between U.S. and European markets may create selective opportunities in the future.
From this perspective, 2026 may prove to be an interesting year for our models, particularly as we analyze cyclical changes in U.S. markets and their relationship with those of the Old Continent. We will continue to monitor these developments closely and keep you informed.